Foundations of Prediction Markets: Modeling, Simulation, and Empirical Evidence (Evolutionary Economics and Social Complexity Science)
| Author | : | |
| Rating | : | 4.75 (925 Votes) |
| Asin | : | 4431552294 |
| Format Type | : | paperback |
| Number of Pages | : | 500 Pages |
| Publish Date | : | 2017-04-01 |
| Language | : | English |
DESCRIPTION:
This dataset includes 5.9 million trades from 170,000 members distributed over 128 countries. A prediction market is designed to trade and predict future events. The book begins with the theoretical aspect by reviewing Friedrich Hayek’s work on markets, which he viewed as discovery processes, and proceeds to experimental economics to examine the Hayek hypothesis by using human-subject experiments, finally moving to the modeling work. The system thus created allows an examination of how the performance of prediction markets can be affected by the complexity of events, the heterogeneity of agents’ intelligence and beliefs, and the degrees of manipulation.. Forty variables are abstracted from the dataset and categorized into five groups to build empirical models to help evaluate or predict the performance of prediction markets. Agent-based simulation of the prediction market augmented with these four elements enables an examination of the effects of these elements on the prediction market from the computati
In addition to the linear models, complex thinking prompts the use of artificial intelligence or machine learning tools to develop nonlinear models. The book begins with the theoretical aspect by reviewing Friedrich Hayek’s work on markets, which he viewed as discovery processes, and proceeds to experimental economics to examine the Hayek hypothesis by using human-subject experiments, finally moving to the modeling work. From the Back Cover A prediction market is designed to trade and predict future events. In addition to the conventional analytical models based on neoclassical economics, agent-based models of prediction markets are introduced. The use of agent-based models makes it possible to addr