Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
| Author | : | |
| Rating | : | 4.49 (927 Votes) |
| Asin | : | B0131HGPQQ |
| Format Type | : | |
| Number of Pages | : | 366 Pages |
| Publish Date | : | 2017-08-20 |
| Language | : | English |
DESCRIPTION:
What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. They are "superforecasters". Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. However, an important and underreported conclusion
"More about superforecasters than about superforecasting" according to Jackal. There are two kind of pop-science books; one deep and thoughtful based on years of research, one quick and dirty written by a ghost-writer. This book is of the latter kind. Tetlock wrote Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? about a decade ago. That book was deep and t. Angie Boyter said This book has a 100% probability of making you think!. Everyone wants to be able to predict the future, whether they are buying stocks, choosing a mate, or deciding how the next presidential election will go, but what, if anything, can we do to improve our ability to predict? Wharton School professor Philip Tetlock has been studying that questi. "I (Matt) have really enjoyed reading Super Forcasting" according to slpleslieanne. I (Matt) have really enjoyed reading Super Forcasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Phillip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. It's a fun book for taking a dive into forecasting .I enjoyed reading about how forecasters related to weather, politics, stocks, etc. are often considered profess