The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
| Author | : | |
| Rating | : | 4.44 (684 Votes) |
| Asin | : | B009HL6444 |
| Format Type | : | |
| Number of Pages | : | 560 Pages |
| Publish Date | : | 2013-03-20 |
| Language | : | English |
DESCRIPTION:
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential listen.. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight, where Silver is one of the nation's most influential political forecasters. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from d
Much-needed insight to understand and improve predictive science Sitting in Seattle This is the best general-readership book on applied statistics that I've read. Short review: if you're interested in science, economics, or prediction: read it. It's full of interesting cases, builds intuition, and is a readable example of Bayesian thinking.Longer. Statistics in Context + Important Key Takeaways The author Nate Silver does a great job weaving more technical statistical concepts in context early in the book, so as not to lose readers early on. However I thought this would lead to more a detailed technical discussion later on, which the author said it would. Kindle Customer said Great book, and here are some takeaways. Excellent book!!! People looking for a "how to predict" silver bullet will (like some reviewers here) be disappointed, mainly because Silver is too honest to pretend that such a thing exists. The anecdotes and exposition are fantastic, and I wish we could make thi