The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto)
| Author | : | |
| Rating | : | 4.30 (689 Votes) |
| Asin | : | 081297381X |
| Format Type | : | paperback |
| Number of Pages | : | 444 Pages |
| Publish Date | : | 2016-02-25 |
| Language | : | English |
DESCRIPTION:
Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. We're still doing it. Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. September 11th is one such exam
A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them
A Modern Masterwork The first book that I read in the four-volume "Incerto" set by Nassim Kaleb was "Antifragile," so my reading of "The Black Swan" is out of sequence. However, I am glad that I came to it in its second edition, with footnotes addressing some of the criticisms made of it (tip: flip to the footnote as soon as you come across the symbol identifying it rather reading on to the end of the chapter where they are listed). While highly relevant to the dismal science of economics, it is far from a dismal t. "Read the postscript in the 2nd edition and you won't need anything else" according to Ronald A. Elling. A must have read. Definitely get the second edition. The "postscript essay" is the most valuable part of the whole book. You have to slog your way through endless invectives in edition one, but the postscript in edition two ties it all together in a tight presentation. Excellent work that I came to through "The Signal and the Noise".. Beware the Black Swan Northern Wanderer This is an interesting, challenging book. The author believes that the events that change the world come out of the blue, are not predictable, and afterwards we try to make sense of them, pretending they are predictable. These events exist outside the ordinary where small perturbations of little real account can be managed for. Since we can;t predict Black Swans, we can manage so as to reduce the risk from negative swans and be ready and receptive to take advantage of positive ones.I am still ab